Suozzi leads Pilip by 4% in new special election poll for former Rep. The headquarters of Santos

Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip by 4% in a new poll about their special election battle for the Long Island seat previously held by the disgraced former Rep. George Santos.

Suozzi holds a narrow lead of 48% to 44% on Pilip in the poll of likely voters for the NY-03 election scheduled for Tuesday, according to the Siena College-Newsday poll released Thursday.

Pollster Don Levy suggested that turnout would be relatively low, at around 25% and results will be determined by the most consistent voters in the suburban swing neighborhood.

“The relative turnout of Democrats versus Republicans is indeed the dynamic that will likely swing the race,” Levy said.

The poll was released as Suozzi and Pilip prepared to face each other in their only face-to-face debate ahead of the elections scheduled for Thursday evening on cable channel Long Island News 12.

The election will help determine control of Congress and will take place as the Republican Party clings to a narrow margin in the House.

The small edge was dramatized when The Republicans are missing one vote dismissal of Homeland Security Director Alexander Mayorkas.

The survey of 694 voters In the district spanning the North Shore and part of Queens, it was the second poll that gave Suozzi, who represented the district for three terms, a modest advantage.

The poll included 39% Democrats and 39% Republicans, with the remainder independents.

More Democrats than Republicans have voted in recent elections, including the 2022 election won by Santos when the electorate included 39% Democrats and 35% Republicans.

But Levy argues the electorate will look more like the 2021 off-year race for Nassau County executive that the GOP won.

The same Siena survey finds former President Trump leading President Biden by a margin of 47 to 42 percent. If true, the result would flip the script. Biden wins 8% in district in 2020.

The only other NY-03 poll from last month showed Suozzi with an equally narrow leadbut found that his advantage could reach double digits if only the most likely voters…

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