Oil prices expected to strengthen as demand rises and supply curbs continue: Reuters poll

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

(Reuters) – Oil prices will see some gains this year as demand rises and output curbs by the OPEC+ producer group, already burdened by military conflicts, continue to tighten supply, a Reuters poll on Thursday showed. got to know.

A survey of 46 economists and analysts forecasts Brent crude will average $82.33 a barrel in 2024, up from a consensus estimate of $81.13 in February. Expectations for US crude oil rose to $78.09 from last month’s forecast of $76.54.

This was the first incremental revision to the 2024 consensus forecasts since the October poll.

“We see oil prices continuing to rise through the summer months,” said Florian Grunberger, senior analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler. “This is due to the geopolitical risk premium and the interests of OPEC+ members, as well as growing demand in China.”

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have caused oil prices to rise more than 12% this quarter. [O/R]

On the demand side, the overall consensus was broadly in line with the 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) increase for 2024 projected by the International Energy Agency.

The IEA’s forecast was much less bullish than OPEC’s, which expects demand to rise by 2.25 million bpd this year and said the 2024 and 2025 growth trajectories of India, China and the United States could exceed current expectations. Are.

“Traders have now fully absorbed the implications of the OPEC+ supply cut extension at a time when demand is proving stronger than expected,” said Matthew Sherwood, chief commodities analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are unlikely to make any changes to oil production policy…

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