The NFL radically changed its kickoff rules this offseason to reinstate the kickoff return. But coaches appear to have been wary of the early results and have gone back to what they’ve always done.
One statistic sums up the evolution of the approach to the new kickoff rules. In the first week of pre-season, 82% of kickoffs were returned. That figure dropped to 74% in the second week and 57% in the third week. by Greg Auman of Fox SportsA 25% change between the first and third weeks is telling.
Coaches are generally risk averse. They may change their strategy early in the preseason when the games don’t count, but they don’t give the opponent a chance to make a big comeback. We saw long comebacks early in the preseason. And by the end of the preseason, coaches started shooting out of the end zone, even though the games didn’t even count.
If this trend is predictive for the regular season, the return of the kickoff may not be back after all.
How will coaches handle kickoffs?
The new kickoff rule has been one of the most talked about aspects of the preseason. It is inspired by the XFL’s kickoffs.
For those who haven’t seen it in the preseason, this will be very different from the kickoff formation that has been used for a century. The kicker is still on the 35-yard line, but the kick coverage players are lined up on the opponent’s 40-yard line. The returning team has at least nine blockers lined up between their 30- and 35-yard line with one or two returners inside the 20-yard line. The coverage players and blockers cannot move until the ball is touched by a returner or hits the ground.
If the ball lands in the “landing zone” between the 20-yard line and the goal line, it must be returned. If the kickoff bounces in the landing zone and goes into the end zone, it may be returned or downed for a touchback to the 20-yard line. If the kickoff reaches the end zone on the fly, it may be returned or downed for a touchback to the 30-yard line. If the kickoff crosses the end zone, the ball is placed on the 30-yard line. And if the kickoff does not reach the 20-yard line, the returning team begins its possession at the 40-yard line.
Coaches have evaluated the impact of this rule on kickoffs and have started moving toward kickoffs outside the end zone, giving their opponents the ball at the 30-yard line. In the first week of the preseason, there were seven kickoff returns of at least 40 yards. Giving an opponent the opportunity to make a long return is risky, and most kickers can kick it outside the end zone. That’s why the percentage of touchbacks has increased to the point that the NFL overhauled the rule this past offseason.
If the return-to-play rate is closer to 43%, as we saw in the final week of preseason, that’s a significant increase from last season’s record of 22%. We’ll see how coaches handle the new kickoff rule once the games are counted.
Other new rules
The other interesting change that was tested in some preseason games was Sony’s Hawk-Eye technology that would tell referees if the offense got a first down after the ball was spotted.
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