A new survey in a key area Battle in the Senate What could decide whether the GOP regains the House majority is the Republican challenger with the edge over the Democratic incumbent.
Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy holds a six-point advantage (51% to 45%) over the Democratic candidate Senator Jon Tester of Montana in an AARP survey released Thursday in a two-way showdown.
The poll suggests Sheehy leads Tester 49 percent to 41 percent in a multiple-candidate field, with Libertarian Party candidate Sid Daoud at 4 percent and Green Party candidate Michael Downey at 1 percent. Four percent are undecided.
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Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who served in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and is CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire monitoring services company, is supported by former President Trump, who headlined a rally in Montana last month. Trump won Montana, a Republican state, by 16 points over President Biden four years ago.
The poll shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for 2024, by 15 points.
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Sheehy also has a strong ally in Senator Steve Daines. from Montana, the chairman of the Senate Republican Party campaign committee.
Tester is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators running for reelection this year, and Republicans are heavily targeting the incumbent.
The poll notes that “with Republicans representing 39 percent of likely voters and Democrats just 24 percent, Tester will need to extend his lead among independents or gain ground among Republicans to take the lead.”
But beating Tester, a Montana farmer and former state legislator who is running for a fourth six-year Senate term and has a history of winning tough elections, is far from an easy task.
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Democrats control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 margin, and Republicans are looking at a favorable electoral map this year, with Democrats holding 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.
One of those seats is in West Virginia, a deeply red state that Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020. Moderate Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin, a former governor who is not seeking reelection, flipping the seat is almost a sure thing for the GOP.
And in Ohio, where Trump won comfortably four years ago, Republicans are aiming…
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