The UAE has adopted a digital economy strategy to increase the sector’s contribution to GDP
WTO lowers global trade growth forecast; US consumer prices are accelerating – macro snapshot
Riyadh: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war hit US consumer prices last month, pushing gasoline prices to record highs, while unemployment fell to a 50-year low, Britain cut revenues and led to a revision of world trade. The company’s global growth forecast for this year is 4.7 to 3 percent.
India’s retail inflation hit a 17 – month high and Argentine inflation is expected to grow to a record high this year. Sri Lanka suspended foreign debt payments and China’s export growth slowed, but Australian business conditions rebounded in March.
Indian retail inflation
India’s retail inflation rose to nearly 7 per cent year-on-year in March, the highest in 17 months and pushed the central bank’s tolerance limit above the ceiling for the third month in a row, pushing it to raise policy rates.
Annual consumer price inflation rose to 6.95 per cent in March on the back of higher prices of energy products and some food items. According to a Reuters poll, print is up 6.35 percent year-over-year and 6.07 percent a month earlier.
Argentina March inflation
The finance minister said on Monday that Argentina’s inflation rate in March could reach 6 per cent, the highest monthly growth in consumer prices so far this year, as the country struggles with rising costs for many goods and services.
In an interview with local broadcaster C5N, Finance Minister Martin Guzm మాట్లాడుతూn said: “The (consumer price) index is above 6 percent, the highest in a year. International market pressures are also having an impact on rising prices in South America.
The bank said annual inflation this year was around 60 per cent.
US consumer prices
US monthly consumer prices rose the most in 16-1 / 2 years in March, while the Russian war on Ukraine pushed petrol prices to record highs, stabilizing the case for a 50 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month.
The consumer price index rose 1.2 percent last month, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. The CPI gained 0.8 per cent in February.
WTO lowered growth forecast
The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday cut its global trade growth forecast for this year to 4.7 percent from 3 percent due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and warned of a potential food crisis caused by rising prices.
A report from the Global Trade Watchdog says the conflict, now in its seventh week, has hit the global economy at a critical juncture as the coronavirus epidemic – and especially Chinese lockdowns – continue to weigh on recovery.
“The economic repercussions of this conflict extend beyond the borders of Ukraine,” WTO Director-General Ngoji Okonjo-Iwala told a news conference.
The UK unemployment rate is the lowest since 2019
Although unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 50 years, Britain’s revenues have fallen sharply since February 2013, when the Bank of England highlighted the challenges it faces and adjusts to rising inflation.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in the three months to February from 3.9 percent earlier, compared to the lowest level seen in late 2019 and the lowest level since 1974, according to official figures.
Annual growth in average earnings, excluding bonuses, rose to 4 percent from 3.8 percent, but was lower than rising inflation – up from 6.2 percent in February – and led to a 1.3 percent decline in its real value, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Ny Cominetti, an economist at the Resolution Foundation’s Think Tank, said: “Rising inflation is putting a big shadow on the labor market.
Sri Lanka suspends loan payments
The central bank governor said on Tuesday that Sri Lanka would suspend foreign debt payments to avoid a tough default, which would require limited foreign reserves for imports of essential commodities such as fuel.
“Making loan payments is challenging and has become impossible. Restructuring debt and avoiding drastic defaults is the best course of action, ”said Governor P.S. Nandalal Weerasinghe told reporters.
As the country suffers from prolonged power cuts along with food and drug shortages, Sri Lanka will begin talks on a loan program with the International Monetary Fund next week.
China trade growth
China’s export growth is likely to slow in March as the Ukraine war slows global demand, but imports may ease amid signs that widespread anti – Kovid lockdowns have weakened domestic consumption, a Reuters poll said on Tuesday.
According to a Reuters poll of 19 economists, exports grew by 13 per cent in March, compared to 16.3 per cent year-on-year in the January-February period of the previous year.
Imports in March were projected to be 8 per cent higher than the previous year, with a growth of 15.5 per cent in the first two months of the year. The slowdown in growth was driven by partial slowdown in domestic demand and production disruptions, both due to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, analysts say.
Chinese economic data for January and February are often combined to eliminate distortions caused by the changing times of the lunar New Year holiday.
Economists in Poland estimate a trade surplus of $ 22.4 billion in March, up from $ 13.8 billion a year earlier.
Trade data will be released on Wednesday.
Business conditions in Australia
The scale of Australian business conditions rose sharply in March as firms saw strong sales and labor conditions, while rising costs pushed up retail prices in a worrying sign for inflation.
A survey by the National Bank of Australia on Tuesday showed that its trading position index had doubled to +18 in March, adding that confidence added 3 points to +16.
The hilarious result is likely to be welcomed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who is on a tough election campaign.
Inflation forecasts were higher at 5.8 per cent, reflecting the cost of living from petrol, food and housing.
As the CBA’s measure of home spending intentions rose to a record 9.2 percent in March due to travel, transportation and retail, those price foams have not yet deterred shoppers as a whole.
Strength in spending, combined with a 13-year low for unemployment, represents the overall strongest performance of the economy in the first quarter.