‘Black Swan’ author ridicules $1 million bitcoin price prediction – Crypto News Today

Former a16z partner and Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan has come under fire for an outlandish bitcoin price prediction, along with renowned scholar and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb criticize Srinivasan’s bet as a “crazy” move.

Srinivasan claimed on Twitter that he would bet $1 million that bitcoin would hit $1 million within 90 days, sparking heated debate and backlash from the cryptocurrency community.

Taleb took to Twitter to express his skepticism, saying Srinivasan’s trade is “trading against itself” which only “crazy people do under the influence”.

Taleb, author of Le Cygne noir, Le Lit de Procuste and Antifragile, is known for his expertise in risk and probability analysis, making his review particularly scathing.

He also pointed out that Srinivasan’s bet could be exploited for arbitrage, inviting his followers to identify the optimal strategy.

Other prominent voices weighed in on the controversy, with trader and investor Roy Blackstone, director of special projects at MIT, comparing Srinivasan’s prediction to John McAfee’s infamous bet that he would eat his own manhood if bitcoin didn’t. not reach $1 million by 2020.

Blackstone suggested that Srinivasan’s prediction was just a ploy to help his friends with their long positions.

Matt Levine, a financial journalist, also questioned the logic behind the outlandish prediction. He pointed out that if Srinivasan really believed the flagship cryptocurrency would be worth $1 million in 90 days, he should buy 40 bitcoins instead of just one.

Levine further noted that many of the replies to his tweet suggested that Srinivasan was trying to manipulate the market by executing a futures trade well above the current price.

Qiao Wang, a cryptocurrency analyst, provided a more measured response, stating that a world in which bitcoin hits $1 million in three months would likely be accompanied by catastrophic events such as nuclear war, breakout of artificial general intelligence (AGI) or the arrival of hostile extraterrestrial forces.

Wang argued that even though bitcoin could realistically reach $1 million within 10 to 20 years, the short timeframe Srinivasan offered would not be favorable even if the odds were in his favor.